Play It Again Sam! (A Look Back on a Prediction of 2003: January 9, 2003)
First of Two Parts
The year 2003 will be a year of increasing global conflict and heightened danger for the United States as it risks overextending itself by committing to fight multiple conflicts simultaneously including a large-scale ground invasion of Iraq and a continuation of the war on terrorism in Afghanistan and elsewhere throughout the world. The US will face a new growing coalition of opposing nations not limited to the three rogue states Bush declared in a speech one year ago to be part of an axis of evil. This alliance of nations, centered around the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China seeks the downfall of perceived US global hegemony through US unilateral disarmament and other means in the interests of realizing a New World Order more to their liking.
War with Iraq is Imminent
The US will invade Iraq early next year probably beginning in February 2003 using an initial force of 80,000 US troops and assorted Allied forces (about 50,000 troops) with 170,000 US ground troops. This reserve force will be sent into action once the invading forces encounters ‘speed bumps’ on the road to Baghdad, which they inevitably will. While the outcome of the war is not in doubt, the war will have several harmful effects on US and regional security, which remain largely unforeseen by the Administration.
1. Iraq will employ CBR weapons against US troops and perhaps against Israel creating a risk that the US or more likely Israel will respond against Iraq with nuclear weapons.
2. War in Iraq and the ensuing occupation will require approximately 100,000 ground troops and will cost hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few to several years. It will cause a disruption in world oil supplies stemming from Saddam’s implementation of a scorched earth policy setting Iraqi oil fields aflame. A US invasion of Iraq will have serious consequences for the US, perhaps resulting in a double-dip recession, and to a lesser extent for the world economy.
3. After Saddam is forcibly deposed by US military forces, a new federation will be established to administer Iraq led by the various Iraqi resistance leaders and consisting of three component parts-Iraqi Kurdistan, a Sunni state in the center of Iraq and a Shiite state in the southern half of Iraq. The Kurdish north will attempt to declare independence while the Shiite south will fall under the control of a far more dangerous enemy-Islamist state sponsor of terror, Iran.
4. The largely unprovoked US invasion of Iraq and ensuing perpetual US military occupation will go far to increase the current global trend of anti-Americanism. It will embolden Al Queda and associated terror networks and increase the incidents of terrorism against the people and territory of the United States. A repetition of a large-scale attack such as that perpetrated by Iranian backed Al Queda terrorists against the Twin Towers on 9-11 should be expected.
5. While the war in Iraq will provide a temporary boost in popularity for US President George W. Bush, its inevitable blowback will likely have a negative effect on his prospects for re-election by Election Day 2004. This may result in an upset victory by the Democrat presidential nominee accompanied by significant changes in US foreign policy. Such foreign policy changes would likely include the abandonment of the Bush Doctrine of pre-emptive attacks, but would also include an even greater focus on appeasement and accommodation of the country’s Communist and terrorist state sponsor enemies.
For more detailed policy papers on the Iraq problem, please click the following link:
The Crisis in North Korea Will be “Resolved” By More Accommodation of Pyongyang
The Bush Administration has stated it will not call for sanctions against North Korea and will continue to send tens of millions of food aid to North Korea a year even after North Korea’s threats of nuclear war against the US. After continued efforts to appear “tough” against North Korea with strong rhetoric of “tailored containment” while continuing to forswear any military action to forestall the North Korean nuclear missile threat against US cities, the Bush Administration will likely fall back on its previous policy of pursuing an entirely diplomatic resolution of the crisis. Such a policy could be expected to include accommodation and appeasement, which was its preferred policy since shortly after taking office in early 2001 and which was only belatedly abandoned this past November after evidence of North Korean violations of the Agreed Framework became irrefutable. As this author has repeatedly pointed out, North Korea poses a far greater threat to the US than Iraq due to the fact that it possesses nuclear ICBMs that can range US cities on its western coast. North Korea has the ability to make good on its threat to turn the US into a “sea of fire.” Non-nuclear Iraq, on the other hand, has no ability to conduct a major strike at the US proper even by way of terrorist attack and will not likely develop nuclear missiles for at least fifteen years if at all.
Immigration to US Will Increase and Border Security Will Not Improve
The Bush Administration will likely renew its push to get Congress to pass another amnesty for millions more illegal aliens. The newly-established Department of Homeland Security will do little to nothing to improve US border security since the Administration remains committed to continuing its open-borders immigration policy. Retention of this policy and refusal to enact drastic limitations on immigration to the US will serve to increase the possibility that terrorists will continue to obtain easy entry into the US and will increase the chances that further spectacular large-scale terrorist strikes like the destruction of the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001 will be repeated in the near future. The Administration will also move forward with its plan to reward hundreds of thousands of legal and illegal Mexican immigrants with Social Security benefits at the cost of as much as $1 billion a year.
David T Pyne currently serves as DUV-PAC Chairman, President of the Utah Republican Assembly, and as Vice President for the Association of the United States Army’s Utah Chapter. A former national security expert, he has served as President of the Center for the National Security Interest, worked as a defense contractor and International Programs Manager, as an International Analyst for the Office of the Secretary of Defense and Department of the Navy, and as a Research Assistant for the Center for Security Policy.