EMILY EKINS, CATO INSTITUTE
Public opinion polls have long found that Americans say they are concerned about climate change. But does that mean people are willing to reduce their own standard of living and make personal sacrifices in efforts to do something about it? New survey data suggests not. An AP-NORC survey finds that 68% of Americans wouldn’t be willing to pay even $10 more a month in higher electric bills even if the money were used to combat climate change.
Proposals that use government intervention in the economy to combat climate change, like the Green New Deal (GND), will require people make personal sacrifices. The GND resolution, introduced to Congress by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA), calls for the U.S. to undertake a 10 year national mobilization, on the scale of World War II, to overhaul its entire infrastructure and industry, including upgrading or replacing every single building in the US with new energy-efficient technology, and reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in 10 years with a goal of completely eliminating Americans use of gas, oil, and coal. Currently, about 80% of all the energy Americans use comes from fossil fuels like gas, oil, and coal.
To say the least, the Green New Deal isn’t cheap. Most analyses estimate it will cost in the trillions of dollars and require Americans to make personal sacrifices. Both supporters and opponents of the plan agree that the environmental aspects of the plan would cost at least $10 trillion. That’s about three times the entire U.S. federal budget. Even when spread out over 10 to 30 years, these estimates indicate an annual price tag of thousands of dollars per U.S. household. Higher levels of government spending necessarily require higher taxes, either now or in the future. Advocates of the Green New Deal say it can be paid for with the government borrowing money (deficit spending.) But deficit spending today means higher taxes tomorrow.
Many 2020 Democratic hopefuls have signed on to the plan, including Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bernie Sanders, and Amy Klobuchar. They may believe this is a popular move with the public. Perhaps because surveys show the public is concerned about climate change. For instance, a 2018 Quinnipiac survey found that 69% of Americans say they are concerned about climate change. And the same survey found that a smaller, but still substantial, share (50%) believe that climate change will personally affect them during their lifetimes.
But what people say they are concerned about and what they are actually willing to do about it are not the same thing. An AP-NORC survey found that 68% of Americans wouldn’t be willing to pay $10 a month in high electric bills to combat climate change. The survey asked people if they would be willing to pay a fee in their electric bill every month that would be used to combat climate change. Then the survey asked about different potential fee amounts. The survey found overwhelming majorities of Americans opposed paying the fee to combat climate change if it cost:
- $10 a month, 68% opposed
- $20 a month, 69% opposed
- $40 a month, 76% opposed
- $75 a month, 83% opposed
- $100 a month, 82% opposed
Was there any amount Americans were willing to pay to combat climate change? Yes, $1 dollar. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Americans would be willing to pay a $1 a month fee in their electric bills to combat climate change.
Although Americans say they are worried about climate change, most clearly aren’t worried enough to spend their own money on it, or make personal sacrifices for the cause. Perhaps it might be that people know they are supposed to be concerned about climate change because this is a salient message they receive from trusted sources and thus say so on surveys. However, receiving these messages and cues hasn’t been enough to convince them to give up their own money, let alone lower their own standard of living, for the cause of combating global warming. However, significant personal sacrifices are what proposals like the Green New Deal will require. These data provide some indication that purported support for government interventions in the economy to deal with climate change may be inflated. Instead, Americans may be more supportive of public policies that foster an economic environment that allows for technological innovation and invention among rising entrepreneurs and private sector businesses competing to come up with the next big idea that makes our world cleaner, healthier, happier, and more productive.
Emily Ekins is a research fellow and director of polling at the Cato Institute. Her research focuses on public opinion, American politics, political psychology, and social movements. She leads the Cato Institute project on public opinion in which she designs and conducts national public opinion surveys and experiments. She holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles. Her dissertation examined sources of support for the tea party movement and the moral values undergirding public demand for limited government.